This issue is very complicated and as known is one of the key moments of Russian-American relations. Americans are already firmly presented in Central Asia and turned Afghanistan into its military strategic base, in this context the issue of military cargos transit is the way to success of total American operation.
Known, that the USA intends to diversify the ways: transit through Pakistan is not the best and stable one. In general the position of Russia towards military cargos transit through its territory is a diplomatic instrument.
How can Russia benefit from this agreement? Obviously, Americans will suggest ceasing the antimissile defense program in Eastern Europe in exchange for the permission for military cargos transit. But we should keep in mind, that this is an extremely unclear promise, and most likely it will be reconsidered in favor of antimissile defense location. To get a real benefit Moscow should tie the permission for the US military cargos transit to more real prospects.
> Logistic And Afganistan
Russia can experience the following negative consequences of the kind of agreement: firstly, legitimate US-NATO operations in Afghanistan, secondly, negative reaction of Muslim world and the countries of Near and Middle East towards Russia, thirdly, the creation of moral excuse for Central Asian post-soviet states for the conclusion of such transit agreements and the construction of American transit centers within their territories, and respectfully their involvement into the US area of influence.
Yury Krupnov is a Chairman of Supervisory Board of the Institute for Demography, Migration and Regional Development.
Translated from politcom.ru