Ukrainian dilemma

Ukrainian dilemma

Tentatively in April, President of Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus will discuss the issue of Ukraine's accession to the provisions of the Customs Union. According to an UNIAN correspondent, told the president of Ukraine, returning from Moscow. Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yanukovych discussed the format of Kiev with the Customs Union (CU) and agreed to continue to work not only for governments, but also with the involvement of the executive body of the Customs Union. While Moscow is offering Kiev to join the Customs Union, which will reduce the price of purchased natural gas in Russia. In Kiev, still hoping to sign an association agreement and a free trade area with the European Union and offer sectoral cooperation with TC under a "3 +1", but Russia is not satisfied.

 

Commenting on the Russian-Ukrainian summit, a Russian political analyst Sergei Mikheyev said that the negotiations were difficult and unprecedented long continued, "Even it was expected that Yanukovych will be the next day, but in the end late-late night, he returned to Kyiv. Not confirmed rumors that have circulated in Kiev, allegedly meeting occurred because Putin asked Yanukovych to come to discuss Tymoshenko. It would be funny to put it mildly. Probably more is nothing to discuss. The fact of the negotiations suggests that it is necessary to solve the issues and problems that exist between us. Discussed, of course, no problem Tymoshenko, and the problem of gas prices, the problem of the possible participation of Ukraine in the Customs Union, the problem transmission system. Judging from the preliminary statement of the two presidents, unfortunately, it seems that some kind of breakthrough solutions on these issues was not reached, although the look. "

 

 

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"Based on circumstantial evidence, in fact, the breakthrough did not happen, but I think that the movement there is, supports Mikheev CEO Center for Political Information Alexei Mukhin. - This is evidenced by anxiety, which showed Western European partners of Ukraine. The behavior of the European Union on the eve of the meeting was very symptomatic. And the behavior itself Viktor Yanukovych after the meeting is also very characteristic. It fits into the scene from the famous film "Ivan Vasilyevich Changes Occupation": "I was tempted by the queen, but did not give me." I think that the "queen" really tempted, because 5% of GDP plus for Ukraine in a year - this is the result, which Vladimir Putin, according to public data actually suggested Viktor Yanukovych as the cheese in the mousetrap, but as a real economic bonus.

 

In addition, Ukraine, has been trading in a very privileged passage in the vehicle, apparently received some assurances that this issue will be discussed. Especially since the European Union is in fact set an ultimatum - or Ukraine enters into an FTA with the EU, or it does not come back. Another is not given - or a customs union or a free trade area. "

 

"The importance of continuing the process important for both sides, - said the head of the Center for Applied Political Studies" Penta "Volodymyr Fesenko. - For the visit of Yanukovych in style charter diplomacy. He is not very prone to such a format, it's not really his style, but now he has to so act, is forced to bargain with both Brussels and Moscow. The meaning of the Ukrainian foreign policy is in two main directions for it is in this - and bargain with Brussels, and Moscow. Europe a little blackmail topic TC, and Russia are trying to convince of the need for concessions - "otherwise we will have to stay for a long time on the European path of development."

 

Continuation of the Ukrainian-Russian parties and any significant results can occur only after the completion of the European Party of Ukraine. The key here during June - October. Once and for Kiev, and Moscow will finally become clear that the agreement with the European Union is signed, then the game will be different. Hence the interim nature of this meeting. Obviously, Yanukovych went to Moscow to talk about gas, and at the same time, this did not seem to say, clearly identify the date and agenda of his visit to Russia. This is a significant issue for Yanukovych. And Putin really wanted to bring all the possible topics for discussion to the topic of the vehicle. Since now on this subject can not be any meaningful and definitive agreements, the negotiations will continue.

 

Today, the main events will occur exactly in the European theater of the diplomatic struggle - what will come to Kiev May-the June deadline, will be assessed when Ukraine's readiness to sign an agreement with the EU. Full implementation of the commitments to Europe will be. The EU does not set an ultimatum on the TC. Some European politicians worried possibility of leaving Ukraine to Russia, joining the CU, but it is not the main issue. There is a clear, specific list of domestic commitments. All of them will not. So as soon as will decide on the future of European integration of Ukraine, then quite different, perhaps more intensely and will of the Ukrainian-Russian talks. And most of all, meaningful agreements can be expected until the autumn, but maybe later in the year. "

 

Director of the Kiev Center for Political and Conflict Studies Mikhail Pogrebinsky not agree with his Russian counterpart: "Just a question on Ukraine's participation in some form in the vehicle is fundamental for Europeans. The struggle that Ukraine has not made a step towards integration with Russia, Europe is more important than all the other requirements. Ukraine to them - uncomfortable member of the TS. Just as Britain fooling European Union, Ukraine became a headache for the vehicle. Politically for Russia Ukraine slide into the vehicle, even a partial political victory for Ukraine between Russia and Europe.

 

The best option would be as follows: Europe with Ukraine refuses to sign an association agreement, Ukraine says: "We're disappointed, but we will still meet all the requirements of the political power of the association agreement, as we are interested in the new European electoral code, and an independent judiciary power, and in human rights and so on - it's all we need. " With regard to the free trade area, just even good that until it takes effect. With the Customs Union is clear that we can not join. But there really is 8 years negotiations were, concluded lot of agreements, contracts, but may agree on a road map of some 15 or 10 years, the result of the implementation of which can be full-fledged membership in the TS. And while there is a process that demonstrates that we're political Europeans, and economically, we need to implement its emergency exit from the current situation, de-industrialization of Ukraine to include a chain of cooperative interaction in the TS. It seems to me that this would be the best solution for both Russia and Europe, and Ukraine. "

 

 

World media monitoring

 

 

18.03.2013

 

 

 
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