Silk Road for Russia

Silk Road for Russia

By Daniel Rozanov

According to some Russian experts, Moscow and Beijing have decided to proceed with the creation of a common, unified economic space. That is, the Chinese New Silk Road and the Eurasian Economic Union must be paired with each other.


Chinese project "one zone - one way" essentially is global in nature. It covers 60% of the world population, which produce 29% of world GDP. This is the plan of the road link, trade, free currency exchange and contacts between people, including Eurasia, the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans. In Russia, however, some people said that the Chinese project would harm the interests of Russia in Central Asia. This misperception. Chinese experts that Russia, too, will benefit. Firstly, between Moscow and Beijing had a good relationship at the highest level, and secondly, the two countries cooperate in the UN Security Council, the SCO, BRICS, thirdly, their economies are complementary.


These experts note that the acceleration of high-tech transportation of goods from China to Europe, of course, beneficial to Chinese industrialists. It also allows you to engage in intercontinental trade in the western regions of China, to the south of the Yangtze River. For Russia, the meaning of this section of the New Silk Road is that its producers will be able to enter the markets of Cambodia, Burma, Thailand, and Malaysia. In addition, in Russia there will be new logistics centers.


But there is a difficulty. The Chinese want to invest in Russia. But the investment climate was not very favorable for this. Here you can see a clear contradiction. Political relations between Beijing and Moscow are at a high level. A trade and economic cooperation is lame. In confirmation of these figures are given. In 2012, China's trade with Russia amounted to 88 billion USD., With the European Union - 546 billion, with the United States - nearly 500 billion, with Japan - 320 billion. And in Russian-Chinese trade is dominated by the government. This model does not fit well in the market economy of China.


According to Russian experts, in fact, Russia is 4.5 times more dependent on China than China - to Russia. Back in 2006, Russia had a positive balance of trade with China; since then it became negative, but in 2014 the gap in favor of China reached 12.7 billion dollars.


The disease of the Russian economy is that it is not diversified. This is very clearly reflected in the structure of trade turnover. In 2014, almost 70% of Russian exports accounted for mineral fuel feedstock. And Chinese exports 62% - on machinery, equipment and finished products.


However, a positive factor is noted that there are Chinese proposal to the railroad tracks running from Chongqing, in Russia there were small and medium-sized enterprises. Unfortunately, the production of such enterprises in Russia virtually no turnover, and they are in the shade. But Moscow wants to be a bridge to supply not only Chinese goods to Europe.


In Russia, saying: Europe makes us all the new claims, we turn to China. Here at once it comes to the construction of oil and gas pipelines. But China pursues a policy of smart, diversifying sources of supply, the price of Russian resources fall. In addition, due to the rapid development of solar energy technologies around 2030 deliveries of Russian gas to China may be unnecessary.


The idea Belt Silk Road looks daunting. But it is based on specific calculations. For its implementation is planned to allocate 21 trillion dollars. The 8 trillion will make a private business. But Russia does not have such as China, financial resources. And so it may be non-competitive in this zone. Although Beijing does not want to bring her harm.


The lack of competitiveness of Russia is becoming evident in the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia, where the RF step zashagom losing ground. For example, oil and gas exports to China in 2012 amounted to 2.6% of GDP in these countries, in Russia - 0.2%. Imports of finished products from China was equal to 6.2% of their GDP, while imports from Russia - 8.5%. It seems to be not so bad. But in 2000 Russia accounted for 14.5% of imports of finished products to the GDP of these countries.


It is clear that Russia has not been completely ousted from the market of Central Asia, it is necessary to invest funds. But today in Moscow strong positions and those who believe it is necessary to give money undeveloped Far East, not the region. But some Chinese experts with this opinion does not agree.


For example Russia can serve as China's relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Trade with them in 2004 amounted to only $ 24 billion. And in 2015, obviously, will be 500 billion. With the exception of Vietnam, the balance is negative for China. The rapid growth has been achieved thanks to the fact that it entered into a free trade agreement. But in Russia and the ASEAN countries have much in common. If you drop a tiny super-rich Singapore, then, for example, the standard of living of Malaysians comparable with the Russians. The members of ASEAN economy resource.


Why not look at them? However, their experience of economic relations with China can be useful only if Moscow will stop pretending that Russia - a great power.






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