Rotate the gas pipe and the choice of strategy for Ukraine

Rotate the gas pipe and the choice of strategy for Ukraine

ByEva Lukas

Ukraine buys Russian gas at the highest prices in Europe. Last year the country was paying for gas on average 414,5 USD / thousand. cu. M. Due to the high cost of Russian gas to the country was forced to reduce purchases of Russian gas to 27 billion cubic meters. m, although the contract they had to be 41 billion cubic meters. m own gas production was 20.2 billion cubic meters. 

 

"We have to pay for gas at the highest price in Europe, it is very hard for our economy," - said in February journalists, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych during a visit to Lithuania. The country was forced to search for mechanisms to resolve the situation. "First of all, we tried to reduce the use of expensive raw materials and at the same time to increase production of the Ukrainian gas", - said Viktor Yanukovych.

 

 

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Ukraine is now in talks with Turkmenistan on the procurement of cheaper gas. However, in this case, it will have to negotiate with "Gazprom" on the admission of Azerbaijani gas to Russia's "tube", which in the circumstances is problematic. Besides, Kiev has taken concrete steps to solve the problem strategically expensive Russian gas.

 

In late January 2013, Ukraine and Royal Dutch Shell signed an agreement to develop shale gas. This gas contract for 10 billion USD was the largest in Europe. The right to develop two shale gas within Yuzovsky plot (in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, the total area - about 7,800 sq. km.) Shell was in May 2012, the agreement allows the company to begin exploration of this year, the company's initial investment of 400 million USD. It is assumed that Shell will not only pay taxes stipulated by Ukrainian law, but also to transmit the state of 31% to 60% of the profits from the produced gas.

 

Ukrainian shale gas reserves are estimated as one of the largest in Europe. According to the calculations of the Ukrainian side, 10 years Yuzovsky field can produce up to 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year, in 15 years - 20 billion cubic meters. Thus, if implemented optimistic scenario - production of 20 billion cubic meters. meters of gas, Ukraine will be able to completely solve the problem of shortage of gas.

 

Along with the implementation of the project for the extraction of shale gas, the role of the gas transportation system (GTS) of Ukraine, as in this system can deliver both to Ukrainian consumers and foreign. Moreover, Ukraine is also planning to buy gas in Europe, and this also needs its own "pipe."

 

Kiev has already said that it will not sell its gas transportation system, although the "Gazprom" does not hide his desire to gain control over the Ukrainian gas transportation system. If, however, the Russian company to sell the pipe, then, experts say, "you can be almost certain that access to another gas into the gas transport system, except Gazprom, will be closed." "Most likely, we will not pipe to sell anyone," - said Viktor Yanukovych in late February. But he did not rule out that the country's gas transportation system can be leased.

 

Ukraine is also trying to implement another project aimed at diversifying sources of fuel. In November 2012 Ukraine signed with Excelerate Energy LLC (USA) and Gas Natural Fenosa (Spain), a partnership agreement for the National Project LNG-terminal. This project is key to the implementation of the government's intentions to diversify gas supplies.

 

LNG-terminal capacity of 10 billion cubic meters. meters of gas per year and the cost of EUR 969 million to be built in the Odessa region (a quarter of this amount should be public funds). The project is scheduled to be implemented in phases. In the first phase will be built floating storage and regasification capacity of 5 billion cubic meters. meters of natural gas a year, on the second - ground terminal with two tanks, the third - the third tank and additional equipment necessary to bring the capacity of the terminal to 10 billion cubic meters.

 

Earlier, Ukraine signed an agreement with Azerbaijan to import 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year in the first and up to 20 billion cubic meters in the second phase of cooperation. The fact that Azerbaijan had plans to build a gas pipeline and transshipment terminal on the Black Sea for its gas exports by sea. But Turkey does not agree to the passage of ships through the Bosphorus in both directions. Experts point out that this is done in order to force Azerbaijan to send all free volumes Transanatoliyskomu fuel gas pipeline, which will pass through its territory.

 

With this in mind, Kiev begun investigating other options - in particular, the construction of the plant from the Mediterranean Sea in Turkey

 

Ukraine has intensified the search for alternative sources of strategic fuels amid a well-defined policy of Russia Traz transfer gas to Europe from the Ukrainian corridor on his pipe.

 

A few years ago it controlled two thirds of Russian gas transit to Europe. But in 2012, Ukraine has virtually ceased to be the main market for Russian gas and has lost control of its transit. The turning point came very quickly: in the first quarter of 2011, Ukraine went through 63% of Russian gas transit to Europe, but in the first quarter of 2012, the figure was already 56%, and at the end of the year – 55%.

 

This year, the country provides is less than half the transit of Russian gas to Europe. The reason is that in 2012 gained momentum just launched "Nord Stream", in addition to last year's "Gazprom" became the owner of "Beltransgaz". Therefore, during the last year, the Russian monopoly has gradually translated from Ukrainian transit flows aimed at "Nord Stream" pipeline and the Yamal-Europe, which runs through Belarus.

 

As a result, beginning in 2013 the Ukrainian pipe load decreased even by 18% (compared to the last decade of the previous year). "Gazprom" has reduced by 26% by pumping Uzhgorod corridor. This will increase the loading of "Nord Stream", having increased shipping along the eastern drainage OPAL and starting a stable supply of the western drainage NEL. As a result, the total share of the Ukrainian transit of Russian exports of gas up to the first decade of January 2013 fell to 42%.

 

This process has a downside. Exports of natural gas through the "Nord Stream" has meant that "Gazprom" increases the transport component in the price of Russian gas supplies to Europe. If the main competitor of "Gazprom" in Europe - Norway - Transportation in the final price is about 30%, and 70% of production, then "Gazprom" about the opposite.

 

To withstand the growing competition in the European market, "Gazprom" has cut prices. In particular, France's GDF Suez, Austrian and German Wingas Econgas WIEH in January and applied for the revision of the terms of their contracts. A number of European consumers, "Gazprom" received discounts before. In general, "Gazpprom" reduced average target price of natural gas to Europe by 2013 from 415 USD / thousand. cu. m up to 370 USD / thousand. cu. M

 

Obviously, the increase in transport costs "Gazprom" may be partially offset by the transfer of Ukrainian exports than the "Nord Stream", and in Belarus, where gas pipelines owned Russian monopoly. However, in recent years, the transit of Russian gas through Belarus has not changed. In 2012, according to "Gazprom", the gas transit through Belarus to 44.5 billion cubic meters. m against 44.3 billion cubic meters. m in 2011 and 43.2 billion cubic meters. m in 2010.

 

Although published in the June 2012 meeting of shareholders of the materials for "Gazprom" announced in 2013, the transit of gas through Belarus may rise to 60 billion cubic meters. m, the basis for these projections is small. According to the report of "Gazprom", the supply of Russian gas to foreign countries in 2012, down 7.5% compared with the previous year - up to 138.8 billion cubic meters. m The total gas consumption in Europe fell by only 2.3%, to 543.2 billion cubic meter

 

In 2012, exports of natural gas to western Europe amounted to 105.82 billion cubic meters. m, in the countries of Central Europe - 32,980,000,000 cu. M

 

Most of the gas from "Gazprom" bought Germany - 33.16 billion cubic meters. m, Turkey - 27.02 billion cubic meters. m, Italy - 15.08 billion cubic meters. m Poland - 9.94 billion cubic meters. meters of gas, United Kingdom - 8.11 billion cubic meters. m, France - 8.04 billion cubic meters. m, Czech Republic - 7.28 billion cubic meters. m, Hungary - 5.29 billion cubic meters. m, Austria - 5.22 billion cubic meters. m, Slovakia - 4.19 billion cubic meters. m, Finland - 3.75 billion cubic meters. m, Greece - 2.50 billion cubic meters. m, The Netherlands - 2.31 ​​billion cubic meters. m, Bulgaria - 2.53 billion cubic meters. m, Romania - 2.17 billion cubic meters. m insignificant volumes of Russian gas were supplied to Serbia and Montenegro - 0.74 billion cubic meters. m, Slovenia - 0.50 billion cubic meters. m, Denmark - 0.33 billion cubic meters. m, Switzerland - 0.30 billion cubic meters. m, Bosnia and Herzegovina - 0.26 billion cubic meters. m, and Macedonia - 0.08 billion cubic meters. M

 

 

12.04.2013

 

 

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