Moldavian puzzle

Moldavian puzzle

By A. Dominik

Moldova after the general election is still no clear prospects for the formation of a parliamentary majority. One thing is clear: the hypothetical possibility of breaking the corrupt political system built by oligarch Plahotniuc by creating a coalition of the Socialist Party of President Dodon and the right pro-European ACUM bloc Andrei Năstase and Maia Sandu will not be realized.

In theory, they could form a government and hold decisions in the parliament on changing the heads of law enforcement agencies and members of the CEC, returning to a purely proportional system and holding early fair elections. However, the leaders of ACUM, fixated on geopolitics, integration with the EU and rapprochement with NATO, completely reject the possibility of even a tactical alliance with the pro-Russian President Dodon and his party. On March 5, Nastase said that the elections were dishonest because of the “criminal binom” by Plahotniuc and Dodon. Putting the main oligarch and the president on a par, he confirmed that ACUM would not cooperate in the parliament "with either one thief or one criminal group." That is, the supporters of the politics of principles from ACUM unambiguously go into full opposition to any new government.

For Vlad Plahotniuc, who controls 40 seats out of 101 in the new parliament (30 democrats, 7 seats of the party of a fraudulent entrepreneur Ilan Shor and 3 “independent”), the easiest thing would be to buy 11 missing deputies, as he successfully did after the 2014 elections . But it is not easy to buy democrats from ACUM, but the socialists are urgently insured by signing a declaration in which they undertake not to give in to pressure, not to betray the command and work only within the faction. But the main thing is that frank bribery will deprive the new government of legitimacy in the eyes of the European Union, where the recent elections were very skeptical of the recent elections, noted the lack of improvement in the field of democracy and the inexpediency of renewing macro-financial assistance.
For the time being, Democratic Party Plahotniuc has sent an invitation for coalition talks only to the ACUM bloc. However, this is rather a gesture towards the West: Plakhotnyuk understood perfectly well that he would not achieve agreement. The lack of a response from the pro-European ACUM gives the leader of the Democratic Party the opportunity to begin a more active search for agreements with the Dodon party, which he has already begun. This is evidenced by an interview with Plakhotnyuk on March 5, in which he calls the main outcome of the election “geopolitical reconciliation”. According to Plakhotnyuk, “these are the first elections in which the social agenda comes first, not geopolitics,” and the Democratic Party sought to unite people around the “pro-Moldovan project”.

Such accents are clearly intended to ease the Dodon party’s steps towards interaction with the Democratic Party. It is noteworthy that, among other options, the president admits the possibility of a coalition of socialists with the Democratic Party, excluding only participation in the ruling coalition of the Shor Party. In this case, Dodon will have to convince Moscow that the alliance with Plakhotniuk, accused in Russia in two criminal cases, is justified by pragmatic considerations: it is better for socialists to enter the government together with the people of Plahotniuc than for the virtually powerless president to endlessly butt with the anti-Russian government.



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