Exclusive interview of the director of the Institute prof. Roman Rybarsky Mr. Mariusz Patey (Poland)
What do You think about French-German compromise on Nord Stream 2 pipeline ?
Well, that is in fact lose of the countries supported implementation “ Third energy package”. For us, the ideal solution would be if the entire Nord Stream 2 was subject to the third energy package. It did not happen. Gas pipelines will be virtually shared. In the waters of EU countries will be obligation of the third energy package. Gas pipelines will be virtually shared. Outside - not anymore. However, the realization of NS 2 will delay and the costs will rise then the total rentability will be lower, then expected. It means in case the countries of Middle Europe with Poland will finish their projects of building infrastructure giving the opportunity of diversification resources of gas, then the gas price will be under the pressure of the market.
It can happened, that Russian gas exporters will have to came back to use existing land gas pipe infrastructure offering lower costs of transportation.
What changes can Poland expect after the parliamentary elections in the autumn?
Well, we do expect PiS will be the winner again.They will continue their reforms on justice system and actively develop Polish version of “state capitalism” in some so called strategic sectors.
They will also will continue pro family social programs financing from growing budget income.
I do believe that they will provide important strategic projects in the region using new financial tools like Three Sea Found integrating and connecting transport infrastructures between Croatia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and also Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan.
Recently, various EU countries and the EU itself have been active in Central Asia. And what do You see the effect of Poland’s foreign policy in this region?
Poland is also active in Central Asia. We observe more actively diplomatic actions from Polish side in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, but also Uzbekistan which declared more opened economic policy. For the effects we have to wait until infrastructure on azimuth north south for gas and oil transportation will be ready. As far I know, that projects slowly, with many problems but going forward.
And short note about Iran.
The Iran is Polish big disappointment.
We expected more warm relations after the cooperation by Iranian army troops with USA and its coalitions in Iraq in context anti ISIS actions.
However Iran did not accept the offer to solve the problem of baasist regime in Syria. They supported Assad by mirage of providing on exclusive conditions pipeline infrastructure to Syrian terminals at the Mediterranean Sea.
They thought they could eliminate their local rivals from Saudi Arabia.
Russian intervention openly showed, that Iran will be not only player in Syria ruled by Assad. Assad will let Russians control Syrian seaside and strategic ports. Iran., then went into conflict path with USA, blocked its opportunities into rising its export to Western Europe countries ( Poland as well ), even if EU is less principled then USA . Iran unfortunately will not receive any political or economical profits with its activity in Syria.