April 2015

How to Avert a Nuclear War

By James E. Cartwright, Vladimir Dvorkin

The Ukrainian crisis has threatened the stability of relations between Russia and the West, making it all the more critical for Russia and the United States to talk, to relieve the pressures to “use or lose” nuclear forces during a crisis and minimize the risk of a mistaken launch.

What Did Tsipras and Putin Gain From Their Meeting in Moscow


By Alexander Baunov

The visit to Moscow by Greece’s Marxist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras sent waves through an already stormy sea and left the world waiting, breath bated, for answers to two questions: First, will Russia be able to split the European Union by breaking a weak link? Second, can Greece be saved from default without Western involvement? These are interrelated questions: It’s clear, isn’t it, that if Russia rescues Greece without the West, it will want a European split as payback? That’s what the EU has feared most from the day the left-wing Syriza party came to power. European politicians warned Tsipras from the start against making anti-Russian sanctions a bargaining chip in Greece’s debt negotiations.

Will Turkey Choose the European or Eurasian Energy Union?

By Orhan Gafarli

The sixth meeting of the World Forum on Energy Regulation is scheduled to be held on May 25–28, in Istanbul, and is being organized by the office of the prime minister of the Turkish Republic. The competitive and dynamically expanding nature of the energy sector in Eurasia has been boosting Turkey’s regional importance as it prepares to take on the role of a strategically important transit and energy hub country (Hurriyet Daily News, January 28).

The OSCE in Ukraine: “First Responder” or Last Resort?


By Paul Fritch

More than a year after the crisis in Ukraine erupted into violence, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) continues to serve by default as the main international presence in-country. The Organization helped to broker two fragile ceasefire agreements (in September 2014 and February 2015), and oversees their implementation through an ambitious “Special Monitoring Mission (SMM),” which serves as the eyes and ears of the international community.