Armenia Amid Fever and Shocks: Risks and Exceptional Chance

Armenia Amid Fever and Shocks: Risks and Exceptional Chance

The foreign political environment which has a significant impact on Armenia is in fever. The ruble is devaluated in Russia, the Iranian riyal too. This is the consequence of the American sanctions and will, definitely, have an impact on the Armenian economy or at least generates risks which require steps for neutralization. The Turkish lira is also falling, creating a risk of chain reaction for the Georgian economy because this country gets a lot of Turkish investments. The Azerbaijani banks have limited sale of dollars in big amounts though this is not a guarantee of prevention of risks for Baku if the shock in the Turkish economy continues. This is also determined by the attitude of the United States which is in a new stage of problems with Ankara. Putin and Erdogan had a telephone call the day before.

Currently Armenia is an isle of stability in the region though the devaluation of the ruble in Russia may echo here.

This is happening amid problems at the border crossing point of Verkhniy Lars which has been a self-sufficient problem for Armenia despite stability in the economy.

Currently, they say, the dram should be forced down to help exporters. This is a so-called axiomatic truth but a deep and comprehensive assessment of the situation and a prediction is needed to translate this decision to practice, not to be late but also not to run ahead of time because devaluating the dram also has risks. The point is to understand which risk is lighter to use to counteract to the other risk.

In addition, the situation is not new to Armenia. At the end of the day, since the world economic crisis of 2008 the external economic conjuncture for Armenia has been negative, there were stable and even favorable years but the general dynamics and tendency are negative due to occasional shocks, as well as geopolitical reasons.

Currently Armenia is facing another stage. It is beyond doubt that, on the one hand, the problem requires fast action, tactical actions to alleviate risks, and on the other hand, in order to insure oneself of permanent ups and downs deeper solutions are required. It is beyond doubt that the Armenian state which has the problem of war does not have sufficient internal resources for long-term strategic solutions.

On the other hand, it is clear that the change of geopolitical and geo-economic vectors due to both objective and subjective reasons.

Hence, in terms of the strategic perspective, the more realistic option remains the involvement of the pan-Armenian potential alongside with ensuring maximum effectiveness and optimality.

Strategic solutions of the economic problems of Armenia must be built on the pan-Armenian potential, not ruling out additional resources but the core, at least in the visible future with a global world that does not indicate signs of stability, should be this.

Of course, the pan-Armenian potential is not outside the world so its instability affects the Armenian capital abroad, the Armenians, the places and areas where the Armenian communities are located.

However, the problem is that the capital may nonetheless have the most reliable support from the Armenian state in the stormy world, considering that a government or leader with exceptional universal legitimacy is the head of state.

At the same time, however, legitimacy requires ideas, initiatives, concepts which will underlie a certain economic and political model which will have a pan-Armenian coverage and, on the other hand, will have a framework, self-sufficient, cyclic nature. All will fail for sure without this ideological basis, based on pure attractiveness for trade or investment.

 

17.08.2018

lragir.am

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