Washington Leverage Over Dushanbe

In Dushanbe arrived Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Richard Hoagland. OH met with President Emomali Rahmon and discussed issues related to possible U.S. investment in the local economy. According to the press service of the President of Tajikistan, the head of state and guest discussed the situation in Afghanistan and its prospects after the withdrawal of NATO troops and implementation of CASA-1000 project. Experts believe that the U.S. is still regarded by the Central Asian countries as a platform to organize its military facilities.

 

Richard Hoagland - diplomat, well-known in Tajikistan. In 2005-2006 he headed the U.S. Embassy, and he knows the situation in the country and in the region. In that period began rapprochement Dushanbe and Washington. Then, according to dispatches released by the WikiLeaks, considering the issue of replacing the Russian military base in Tajikistan for the American. Interfere with plans for pro-Moscow President Emomali Rahmon. Today, the situation is somewhat different, but the plans to deploy its military facilities in Central Asia, Washington remained. In particular, as reported recently Los Angeles Times, Washington is negotiating with the authorities of the countries of Central Asia to host databases of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). According to the publication, they needed to fight international terrorism in general, and "Al Qaeda" in particular.

 

Experts do not rule out that the United States today can come back to the idea of the scenario developed in 2005-2006, especially as the political situation in Tajikistan escalates - growing discontent of the population of power. And in Afghanistan, the situation is changing for the worse. Observers believe: succeeding in the wake of change of power in Ukraine, to inspire the population of those former Soviet republics, where authorities are unhappy, you may be tempted to "organize and maidan in Tajikistan."

 

Politics Rahmon meets U.S. plans, especially in the military sphere. Americans regard him military cooperation with Russia as a factor in the formation of Central Asian outpost of Russian influence in the region. A space station opto-electronic reconnaissance "Window" Nurek - for Americans and all additional and substantial stimulus. After all, the station is able to track U.S. satellites, and potentially even prejudicial to them, contributing to incapacitate their optics. Russian 201st military base remains on the territory of the republic until 2042. It's also not in the interests of the United States. They irritate and meditation Rahmon on joining the Customs and the Eurasian Union. Dushanbe cooperation with Beijing also underwhelming Washington. Such a divergence of interests will push Washington to restore closer than it is now, contact with Dushanbe, in order to have any effective leverage on Rahmon.

 

As bait the American side is ready to offer investment, the question of which Hoagland discussed at a meeting with Rahmon mentioned. This primarily can go about investing in the CASA-1000 project to supply in summer electricity from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Recently in Washington was hastily signed an agreement on this project. But there are other opinions.

 

After meetings with Hoagland became clear that the Ukrainian scenario for Tajikistan is not on the agenda of the American regional diplomacy. In this regard, much more anxiety can cause Kyrgyzstan, where the implementation of "color" technology is a complete set of prerequisites and much more reason. And Tajikistan until the Americans needed in a relatively stable state in which he resides. Especially that there unlike in neighboring Kyrgyzstan bulk of the politically active population is not prone to power protest actions. A significant portion of society still remains immunity generated relatively recent civil war. In Tajikistan, the current government in the postwar period too thoroughly cleansed political space, removed all of any meaningful political opponents, which was confirmed and presidential elections held last fall. And most importantly, Tajikistan has a capable state institutions, is needed as a lever of pressure on neighboring Uzbekistan. Relatively smooth partnership with Tashkent provide Americans including the creation of balances, one of which is the Tajikistan ..

 

The President Rahmon with the U.S. State Department representative in reality it could go mainly to energy projects, programs in the field of safety, as it is declared. According to experts, the U.S. has effective leverage over Dushanbe - is concentrated in a constant state of alert at the border with Tajikistan is on Afghan territory detachments "Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan." Their efficiency is ensured by the high transparency of the Tajik-Afghan border. But while this tool toward Tashkent, if he wants to behave more independently. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan - is a transit area for the delivery of militants from the northeast to the borders of Afghanistan, Uzbekistan. Extruding from Tajikistan Russian military - a problem is important, but not the near future. Now urgent for the Pentagon and the State Department - maintaining its military presence in Kyrgyzstan and the same row seating military facilities in Tajikistan. Energy issues and ways to overcome the communication deadlock - the eternal game of pain points Tajikistan. A CASA-1000 project and the railway project in Turkmenistan on Afghan territory, bypassing Uzbekistan may be just a myth.

 

 

World media monitoring

 

 

28.02.2014

 

 

 

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