Ukraine hopes for China

By Jakub Taras

Ukraine hopes to attract Chinese to the process of settlement in the Donbass. This follows from the official statement of the presidential press service on the basis of the talks held in Davos, Petro Poroshenko and leader Xi Jinping. In what format can connect China to resolve the conflict, not reported. The main question - to succeed in the new situation prevailing in the world, save the "Norman format" and the Minsk process.

 

It was noted that in China Jinping has assured support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine. Xi Jinping stressed that China sincerely hopes that Ukraine will remain the situation of social stability and economic development, he is ready to play a constructive role in overcoming the crisis through political means.

 

The debate about the possibility of China's involvement, along with the United States, to negotiate for a settlement in the Donbass are conducted in Ukraine since 2015.

 

In 2016, the leader of "Norman Quartet" of states, meeting in the middle of last autumn, agreed to develop and agree on a draft "roadmap" to the end of November. But the plan was foiled. Ukraine in its version of the document insists on the fact that initially all parties fulfill those items Minsk agreements that will stop the fighting and to ensure security in the region; and then promises to take political decisions related to the election of local authorities in the Donbass, and giving them broad powers. At the same time Kyiv does not consider the separatist republic in eastern Ukraine as separate entities in the process of settlement. But in Moscow, Russia categorically denied any involvement in the conflict and recommend to Kiev, recognizing subjectivity republics, directly negotiate with the separatists on the conditions of the world. And their leaders are demanding special status for the republics and argue that consider reintegration with Ukraine only after the change of power in Kiev.

 

Even last year, the situation has been recognized as a dead-end. Experts in Kiev have noted that changes may begin after the inauguration of the new American president. When Barack Obama, the US is not directly involved in negotiations, but European mediators to coordinate its position with Washington. At the end of 2016 in Kiev, many experts suggested that Trump's administration decides to enter into the negotiation process.

 

Since then the situation has deteriorated significantly in the Donbass. Announced with a truce on December 24 is not met, the number of attacks is more than 50 per day, fire activity is recorded along the demarcation line. After a series of telephone conversations of the leaders of Germany, France and Russia, it was reported that in the near future is planned to hold a series of joint activities at different levels.

 

Experts in Kiev believe that efforts are unlikely to be effective, since the parties, as in the past, hold opposing views on the situation in the Donbass, and pursue different goals. The views of the Russian and Ukrainian leaders do not coincide on the causes of the conflict or its participants, nor even the text of the Minsk agreements. It is therefore not able to agree on an acceptable option for all of the "road map." According to them, it is more logical to start talks on expanding the format of participants by the US and European countries concerned, and possibly through the China connection. However, it is still unknown what specifically agreed in Davos and whether the agreement sufficiently specified. We only know that in 2017, Petro Poroshenko and Xi Jinping are going to exchange official visits. In addition, the planned meeting of the Ukrainian-Chinese Intergovernmental Commission on Cooperation.

 

As noted by some experts, Beijing's policy is very pragmatic. It is very important that they recognize the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the Donbass and Crimea. This position of China is partly due to the problem of Taiwan. But, in addition, in the near future are looming complicated relations of China with the United States, experts say. Therefore, to predict development of the situation and whether it is beneficial Ukraine under such conditions, it is practically impossible. In a world of global game starts, the members of which in their own way try to use the problem of eastern Ukraine. Solving the problem without taking into account the interests of Ukrainian Crimea may result in bargaining on the Donbass. That is, the world does not officially recognize the Russian status of the Crimea, but generally will not touch this topic. In return, Ukraine will return Donbass. While such an option firmly rejected in Kiev.

 

 

27.01.2017

 

 

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