The current situation in Europe and the world continues to be in a phase of high turbulence. The world has become economically and politically multipolar. The emergence of a whole range of new threats, which received the unifying name of hybrid ones, reinforces the dangerous uncertainty in relations between states and their associations. Tested under international law and the authority of international organizations. The number of regional conflicts is growing, aided by the dangerous tendency to look at regions of the world through the prism of geopolitical competition.
Despite the real danger of hybrid threats, the task of organizing joint resistance at the international level seems to be rather illusory. Hybrid threats are created by states for the realization of their own selfish and pragmatic goals in line with the protection of national interests. In this context, talking about an international consensus on a global response to threats of this kind would be naive.
But at the same time, serious efforts are needed under the auspices of the UN and the OSCE to create a legal framework for the definition of “hybrid war” and “hybrid threats” and possible ways to localize them in order to prevent their scale from expanding and to limit their intensity. The obvious priority is to develop a coherent understanding of aggression in the information and cyberspace and the right of states to protect while developing ways to localize the source of cyber attack.
A significant proportion of hybrid threats originate at the periphery of the OSCE. Some of these spaces are devoid of any statehood and turned into territories where terrorists and organized crime are in control. All this requires consolidating efforts on a truly collective basis. However, systemic cooperation in areas of common interest remains very weak today: because of this, important UN and OSCE resources for strengthening confidence and security are idle.
As a result of the complex use of modern subversive technologies, the hybrid war has already turned into a new type of interstate confrontation and will determine the development of world political processes and the state of international security for many decades to come. Moreover, it can, under certain circumstances, act as a catalyst for a large-scale conflict, even a global one.
Thus, an analysis of the phenomenon of the hybrid war associated with a change in the ratio of the contributions of military and non-military types of struggle to the overall political outcome of war puts forward among the priority tasks the study and careful study of the issue at the level of international organizations (primarily the UN and OSCE) in order to develop legal framework for the joint opposition of the GW. Today it is important to continue the expert dialogue on this issue, to establish an exchange of views, including a specialized publication (website) under the auspices of the OSCE.
Apparently, the tasks of combating the ideology of terror and the phenomenon of foreign militant terrorists should be put in the first place in international efforts. Terrorism is closely linked to the problem of drug trafficking, the proceeds of which go to finance terrorist acts. A serious common challenge is the problem of migration. OSCE resources are in demand in the resolution of conflicts.
It is necessary to facilitate the adjustment of OSCE mechanisms with a view to establishing contacts and mutual awareness, consultation, and means of preventing the emergence of hybrid threats not only in the OSCE area. The influence of extra-regional factors on the security situation in the OSCE area will only increase. Problems such as violent extremism, terrorism, illicit trafficking in small arms and light weapons, cyber threats and large flows of refugees and migrants are common challenges for all OSCE participating States. Despite the existing differences, the West and Russia must jointly respond to their common challenges.
To this end, it is necessary to make full use of the Platform for Co-operative Security and the Structural Dialogue in the OSCE to establish contacts between all states and organizations operating in the space of the organization. We need steps in areas where there are common interests in order to restore constructive communication, predictability and trust. It is important to continue to seek integration of integration processes in the common interest, and the OSCE should play its important role in this.
Hybrid war is a multidimensional asymmetric conflict with the use of a hybrid threat synchronized in a single strategy. The strategy provides for the balancing of power and non-power actions, in power actions irregular and regular formations are used. Coordination of the threats used is horizontal - by time, the geography of their use and the types of threats, the vertical control of the intensity of the use of threats of each type is carried out.
The novelty of hybrid war lies in the unique combination of a variety of threats, including cyber threats and space, the speed at which threats are used and the possibility of their operational concentration in vulnerable places throughout the country.
The absence of an internationally agreed definition of the concepts of “hybrid war” and “hybrid threats”, which makes it impossible to plan coordinated actions of the international community to counter a new type of aggression.
At the same time, the limited potential of international efforts to counter hybrid threats should be reported. Therefore, it is important to develop bilateral cooperation with countries that are themselves objects of hybrid aggression. This is primarily China, with which cooperation should develop on confronting a whole range of common hybrid threats (economic war, religious and national separatism, cyber aggressiveness, hostile actions in space, threats from the use of artificial intelligence technologies, disruptive information events, etc.), also Iran, some states of the Middle East and Africa, Venezuela, Cuba and a number of other countries.