POLITICAL PROJECT TRANS-CASPIAN PIPELINE

In 2014, the EU intends to intensify its efforts related to the implementation of pipelines going through the Caspian Sea. These plans were discussed last December at the talks in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan committee within the EU. Brussels intends soon to continue negotiations with Ashgabat to implement a project of Trans-Caspian gas pipeline.

 

In the implementation of this project, the key role of the EU devotes Turkmenistan , which over the last decade became a member of the new pipeline projects. Decisive importance in this was played by natural gas reserves , which draw attention to this Brussels Caspian states. However, the willingness to participate in Ashgabat Trans-Caspian project does not go beyond political statements. Europeans can not be obtained from Ashgabat signing specific documents . Obviously, it is not only in the care of the Turkmen government.

 

On Turkmenistan's position is greatly influenced by China, which has Ashgabat reliable supply of natural gas on a long term basis. Moreover , Beijing keeps Turkmenistan in its orbit of influence . No sooner had Ashgabat in July 2013 to sign a protocol on the establishment of a consortium for the construction of TAPI ( Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- Pakistan-India ) as early as September of the same year Beijing signed a new agreement with Turkmenistan , bringing the total potential supply up to 65 billion cubic meters year. Simultaneously discussed new projects Turkmen gas exports in the Chinese direction. Such a " guardianship" is supported by financial resources. It allows Beijing to block U.S. efforts that promote the idea of building the TAPI and securely hold Ashgabat its sphere of influence . As a result, there is no need to get involved in Turkmenistan in questionable , especially from a political point of view, the EU project .

 

Azerbaijan's position , which is also not beyond the political support of the European project , based on the current terms of objectively existing hydrocarbon production and projections for the coming decade .

 

In 2014, Azerbaijan expects to produce 28 billion cubic meters of gas , and in subsequent years from existing facilities reach the level of 30-32 billion Commissioning of the second stage of the gas field " Shah Deniz " will allow Azerbaijan to expect an increase in gas production by 16 billion cubic meters . As a result of 8-10 years Azerbaijan's export potential could be around 25 billion cubic meters.

 

Baku expects explored area fields "Absheron" , "Umit" and the Azeri- Chirag- where found deep layers . Following the development of promising deposits Azerbaijan can potentially increase gas exports by 10 billion cubic meters , bringing the total volume to 35 billion, however, the appearance of additional volumes of hydrocarbons can occur no earlier than 2025. However, these plans may adjust the drop in production on existing wells. In addition, exports will be affected by the changes that occur in the European gas market.

 

For a given volume of transportation of hydrocarbons , Azerbaijan will have a pipeline of Baku-Tbilisi -Erzurum gas pipeline project with a capacity of 16 billion cubic meters and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline ( TAP ) , which is to be commissioned by 2020. Its capacity should reach 10 billion cubic meters , expandable to 20 billion Accordingly , provided Azerbaijan's access to forecast figures Baku will not need Turkmen gas .

 

With the construction of the TAP Azerbaijan's participation in the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline is meaningless. Important for Baku upload your own "pipe" . In turn , Ashgabat plans to increase shipments to China and Iran.

 

Position of the Caspian states and forecasting production and export of gas from Azerbaijan led to the conclusion that the project is being promoted by the EU Trans-Caspian pipeline is a political one.

 

 

World media monitoring

 

 

26.02.2014

 

 

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