Obviously, gas war in its current progress is a next knock-down of the “Putin’s Russia”.
As still there is no other political Russia, each of the kind of strike should be assessed differentially. As well it should be considered weather it damages the dead-end Putin’s model or the statehood itself?
In the given case, the first variant prevails, although the second one is not excluded.
National interests have been affected within one delicate matter: Russia intends to become a regional Superpower within Post-Soviet area. And this status involves the ability to resolve conflicts independently in its sphere of influence. Today, we observe the two sides calling Europe to judge. Russia and Ukraine stand in a row as two insulted satellites.
This interpretation of the situation will be especially vivid if the “peacekeeping summit” is held in Prague or Brussels.
At the same time, another reclamation has shaped in Russian policy within past years – reclamation on the role of the West energy security guarantee. Today this role has been failed completely and irrevocably.
And we shouldn’t regret about it for sure.
If Europe reduces its dependence on Russia, then Russia will be able to reduce the level of its commitments to Europe. In this respect, we are absolutely interested in European energy consumption diversification – this would allow to spend critical gas on the demands of Russian economy.
If Europe breaks the dreams of Russian gas elite and blocks energy assets exchange completely, then processing and sale of natural gas, not raw materials, will be the only way of qualitative increase of natural gas profit rate.
In general, we need to cease natural gas export to Europe gradually and move to products processing sphere. This matter has been recently discussed within the press.
No doubt, this means that it is time to say good bye to the favorite masterpiece of Putin’s diplomacy – gas networks geopolitics. Exporting pipelines should be considered as a throw-back. It’s functioning but residually. There is no perspective for it in future.
Current gas blockade is a perfect moment to acknowledge this fact. But still it’s not happening yet. On the contrary, all hopes are connected with construction of new pipeline routes.
But creation of a new configuration of gas transit scheme, secure from Ukrainian fancies, demands the same investments as processing industry.
Energy industrialization is in its way more cost-efficient project than gas geopolitics.
As a matter of fact, the last one with its triumphal plans for northern and southern flows is heinous as we spend plenty of efforts and funds to remain in our raw material trap as before.
In this sense, it is a historic temptation. It heats imagination, but gives no chance for action.
Translation from apn.ru