Scheduled for August in the history of the country's first direct presidential elections in Turkey raises several questions. The first - whether Erdogan, being the undisputed leader preliminary interviews, to avoid a second round, and the confrontation with the united opposition? Second - who will be given to the prime minister. And the third - what happens if Erdogan still lose the election.
All these issues have emerged almost simultaneously - when the Turkish opposition, particularly weak, which did not have any significant, respected and prominent leaders, unable to find a suitable candidate to oppose the current prime minister. This nomination - Professor Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, former Secretary General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Moderate Islamist, author of several fundamental historical research. Ihsanoglu, an academic with no experience as a politician in Turkey, is a complete contrast to the pure practice for many years, who was sitting in the chair of the Prime Minister, Erdogan. On the one hand - this is a plus, as a professor, unlike its rival, Mark disperse demonstrations in 2013 and 2014., Not disgraced himself anything. On the other - the lack of knowledge of the Turkish political life at the highest level of personal contacts and popularity as a politician may deter a significant number of voters of the candidate and be the goal of advocacy efforts team Erdogan.
At the moment, the pro-government sociologists give premiere 55% of respondents' votes, while his opponent - only 36%. Given that Ihasnoglu just appeared in Turkish politics, such a result for him - very good, but to win - obviously insufficient. However, there is still a month if not to win, then at least for "procrastination" Erdogan those most 5% of the vote, that enable him to win the election in the first round. And it is quite possible. Outcome of the second round may be, in turn, more than unpredictable. Currently around Ihasnoglu united Republican People's Party, the National Action Party, Democratic Party, Democratic Left Party and the Independent. At the same time it is still unclear who will give their votes to the electorate-Kurdish People's Democratic Party. Maybe in the case of the second round, that its supporters will decide the outcome of elections. Furthermore, we should not forget that in the voting will take part, and another candidate - Selyahattin Demirtas, nominated by the party of peace and democracy. With virtually no chance not only to win, but in the second round, Demirtas can also play into the hands of one of the two leading candidates, if they remain "one on one".
It is noteworthy that earlier in the Justice and Development Party Erdogan suggested that, if he wins (which until some time a few who doubt), the new president simply swapped with its predecessor, Abdullah Gul, who, in turn, sit in a chair Prime Minister. However, after the end of Gul's statements in his political career after the completion of his term, the ruling party was in a deadlock. At the moment, the party did not put forward a candidate for the premiership. Moreover, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu unexpected popularity has spawned talk of a possible occupation them prime minister and form a new center-right party. Despite some extravagance such assumptions, it should be noted that they are in the present circumstances, even the real victory and a successful presidency of professor Ihsanoglu.
Just need to say that the hypothetical victory professor to lead the serious enough "showdown" between its members to support the unit. Very much different in their goals and beliefs of his party make - which are only a relatively secular and liberal conditionally NPF and conservative National Action Party. We should not forget that even now Ihsanoglu has only conditional support to these political forces. For example, the Alawites, who are voters of the Republican People's Party does not support the candidature of professor - graduates of leading Sunni Islamic University of Al-Azhar world. They even expressed their willingness to push for the presidency another unwinnable election - deputy Emine Ülker Tarhan.
Thus, the Turkish elections planted the expert community in Turkey and around the world multidirectional intrigue. Despite the decline in popularity of Recep Erdogan Teyipa after the events around the park Gezi and mine accident in Somme, he is still quite capable of victory in the presidential election. In this struggle will still be, and if it is not completed by the prospective in Justice and Development Party scenario, the country will face another round of political confrontation - already among the winners. In any case, Erdogan was right by saying that the first-ever direct presidential elections in Turkey will become a new and important stage in its history.
World media monitoring