Europe will reduce gas consumption

By Daniel Rozanov

Oil and gas industry are waiting for hard times: after the fall in world oil prices will face a forced reduction in production and gas industry is waiting for the decline in exports to Europe. Total gas consumption in Europe will decrease, not increase as hoped in "Gazprom". Big problems can arise when building new export routes - such as the "Nord Stream-2".

 

Revenues from Russian oil exports fell in comparison with the previous year by almost 40%. From the fall of the Russian Federation further save outpacing export growth by reducing processing and a small increase in production. During 10 months of 2015 the export of crude oil rose by 7.5%, while processing decreased by 2.2%, while total production increased, according to the Energy Ministry, 1.3% from the same period last year. But reserves increased exports by reducing the processing and increase the production will soon be exhausted.

 

In Russia, there are downside risks to oil, declared Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich. He said that the Russian authorities have clear plans to stabilize production.

 

If oil major problems associated with the possible reduction of production, the gas industry for the most painful constraints associated with falling demand and sales. Russian gas exports declined for three quarters of this year by 2.8%. The income from the export of Russian gas in January-September decreased by 29% compared to the same period in 2014.

 

Russia has long relied on the growth of gas supplies to Europe. But today, these plans were under question due to lower demand for gas, and because of the geopolitical confrontation. By 2030, the EU may even reduce the total gas consumption compared to the current level.

 

According to European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič, in 2030 we need 380 billion to 450 billion cubic meters. of gas in Europe. This is a little less, depending on the winter than we consume today, and he called on the EU to actively reduce gas dependence on Russia.

 

According to the European Commission, to fuel supplies were stable, affordable, efficient and diverse, you need at least three suppliers, according to Reuters. Russia, which provides a third of the EU energy for some of the participants is the sole supplier - reminds agency. In the future, the European Commission presented a strategy to expand the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG). According to sources in the industry, in February next year Lithuania was the first European country will receive LNG cargoes from the US.

 

Allegations of diversification means that the new Russian export projects in Europe will face obstacles. The European Commission has already shown a willingness to complicate the implementation of the project "North Stream-2", which involves the construction of additional to the main "Nord Stream" two lines with a total capacity of 55 billion cubic meters. per year. The project involves "Gazprom», OMV, Shell, BASF / Wintershall, Engie, E.ON.

 

The EU takes note of some commercial enterprises to establish a connection between Germany and Russia through the Baltic Sea, but the third and fourth line of "Nord Stream" will not be allowed to purchase gas from a new supplier. They only increase the transport capacity of the European Union, which is now used by only 50%. This pipeline must comply with European law and the European Commission will review this dossier primarily on compliance with EU legislation.

 

Brussels also insists on maintaining the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine: The EU is the source of supplies passing through Ukraine. Both the EU point of view on this matter is very clear. It is therefore proposed to hold a discussion between the German authorities and the Commission services at the level of experts, because European law must be fully respected, that projects of this kind could succeed.

 

They see the danger of political confrontation project "North Stream-2" in Germany. At the same time as the Germans offer concessions to the EU to save transit of Russian gas through Ukraine and after 2019, against which the public mind in the Kremlin. "In order to limit political interference in these matters, it is necessary to resolve the issue of Ukraine's role as a transit country and after 2019", - the vice-chancellor of Germany, Sigmar Gabriel, in late October at a meeting with Vladimir Putin.

 

In turn, European officials demonstrate a hard line, including restrictions on the capacity of an existing "Nord Stream". There is no change in the situation with gas pipeline OPAL. OPAL - this land withdrawal from the offshore gas pipeline "Nord Stream". The European Commission and the German Federal Network Agency allowed "Gazprom" to use only half of the capacity of the gas pipeline OPAL, the total capacity of which is 36 billion cubic meters. per year. This limits the occupancy of "Nord Stream" and leads to a rise in the cost of transit through it.

 

 

30.11.2015

 

 

 
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