Donald Trump's administration's decision to leave Iran's nuclear program and its possible reflection on world politics

By Ketevan Jebisashvili, Abdulmelik Alkan, Nika Chitadze

One of the main reasons of why USA maid decision to leave Iran nuclear program is Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement according to which Israel  has an archive where stolen information about Iranian nuclear plans is protected. Israeli High Commissioner has accused Iran in production of nuclear weapon. As an evidence, to the Trump administration were presented 55,000-page documents taken from a secret warehouse in Tehran along with 183 dvds. Netanyahu's statement in Iran was assessed as a "childish and funny game" and a pre-staged show aimed to influence on Trump's decision and damage Iran's international prestige. According to the opinion of different experts, Donald Trump and his administration are under the influence of Jewish lobby and hasty decisions were made without consultations with other European countries. Such decisions ultimately impacted on international situation.

According to the Experts and majority of the international community opinion, some recent decision of the Trump’s administration were perceived significant mistakes

The first decision was the recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. In our opinion, by this decision, the United States was involved in a pre-lost battle. Only nine states supported the initiative at the UN General Assembly meeting, and more than 100 states, including the closest European allies of the United States voted against the official Washington’s initiative.As a result of this step, it is quite possible that this will cause tension between the United States and  many Islamic countries. It is known that around 1,6 billion people worldwide are followers of Islam (as Sunni and Shiite).Trump's statement caused mass protests in the Islamic world and they shunned Israel's decision.

Trump's administration's decision couldn’t  change the de facto reality, because Israel was controlling whole Jerusalem after “six day war” in 1967. The situation in the Gaza sector is also tensed. This step may strain the situationin in the Middle East and increase the disagreement between American and European partners.

When the radical leader Ahmadinejad was a head of the Iranian government there were many questions from the international community about Iran's nuclear program, at that time tension between the US and Iran was totally expected.

However, later, the arrival of moderate Hassan Rouhani has led a dialogue between the West and Iran (Including dialogue about  nuclear program). As a result, the international community has achieved six-side agreement in 2015. According to which, Iran had to make its nuclear program more transparent in exchange of a gradual easing of sanctions imposed on the country. The agreement allowed Iran to provide additional volume of oil on the international market. Because of this, price of oil was decreased on the world market, which in turn negatively affected on Russian economy.

The US withdrawal from the nuclear deal may tense relations between America and other states in the following  directions:

First of all, there was a disagreement between the US and its European partners, as the EU did not support the USA’s action. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called Donald Trump not to leave Iran's nuclear deal.

Secondly, 9% of the oil reserves in the world and 16% of natural gas is concentrated in the territory of Iran. Iran will not have the opportunity to export the additional oil on the world energy market, and the prices of oil will increase.  Also, there can be problems with the possible export of natural gas from Iran to Europe. It is also noteworthy that after the Trump’s decision, the price of oil has increased and exceeded 80 dollars per barrel. This implies automatic reinforcement of the Russian economy, as more than 50% of Russia's revenues depend on oil and gas export.

It is also necessary to take into account, in light of today's reality, the main geopolitical opponent of the international democratic community as well as for the United States, is not Iran but Russia.

Third, the US action may lead to a  rapprochement of relations between Russia and Iran. Furthermore, it is known that they had a close cooperation in nuclear and military spheres. Russia gave relevant nuclear technologies to Iran, for building the “Bushehr” nuclear power plant. In addition, between two countries, cooperation on energy sector called the "road map" may be used effective leverage in middle east.  Accordingly, the US's new position toward Iran will hinder the process of integration between Iran and Western republics. There is a possibility of strengthening   anti-Western bloc, for example: Russia-China-Iran trilateral Union. It is worth noting that China satisfies 15% of its demand on  oil from Iran.

In addition, China has an observer member’s status in the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization”

Trump's decision and Georgia

President Tramp’s initiative will negatively impact on Georgia's national interests.

There is a danger for the preservation of Georgia's security if West will have another "headache". Because such "headaches" of the West gives Russia more opportunity to influence on  the post-Soviet space.(Which is a zone of privileged interests for Moscow)

During the years Russia has been promoting the nuclear issue of Iran, in order to force the West to fight in different fronts. Therefore Russia is trying to gather more and more allies in the international arena. (For example: Afghanistan, Iraq, Korea, Libya, Syria, "Islamic State" etc.)
It should also be noted that the increase of oil prices will negatively impact on Georgia's economy, Because country imports 10% of oil and oil products. Accordingly, the volume of import will increase, which may have a negative impact on the foreign trade balance of the country and the Lari.

CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

 

08.06.2018

 

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